Tennessee +1 over AUBURN
The nation's #7 team figures to be challenged this weekend as the Tennessee Volunteers hit the road to battle the Auburn Tigers in an SEC affair. Tennessee is 4-0 for the second time under head coach Phillip Fulmer, joining the undefeated 1998 national championship squad which finished without a blemish. The Vols were able to move up another spot in this week's AP poll after a hard-fought 23-20 overtime victory over South Carolina last weekend, and there is plenty of reason for confidence heading into this showdown, as they have won 12 of their last 13 road games. Furthermore, quarterback Casey Clausen has led the team to victory in each of his 11 career road starts. Auburn entered this season highly ranked with lofty expectations, but back-to-back losses to USC and Georgia Tech by a combined score of 40-3 gave the team a shockingly unexpected 0-2 start. Things have turned around since then, as the team has won a couple; however, it was Vanderbilt and Western Kentucky that were the Tigers' victims.
Casey Clausen is joined by a fine collection of backs behind him. Tailback Cedric Houston is the leader and averaging 108 ypg to rank third among all SEC ball carriers. While the Vols have not been explosive this season offensively, they have achieved outstanding balance with 188 rushing ypg coming on the ground and 195 ypg being generated through the air. Punters rarely earn any press, but Tennessee's Dustin Colquitt is arguably as valuable to the team as Clausen. The nation's only returning 2002 Ray Guy Award finalist, Colquitt had a career-high five punts of 50 yards or more against South Carolina, and Fulmer awarded him a game ball for the effort. In a game such as this one, field position is of utmost importance and the advantage of having Colquitt punting the ball can't be overstated. On defense, opponents are scoring only 15 ppg against Tennessee this season in large part because the team has been outstanding against the run. Squads are running for only 94 ypg and averaging a mere 3.0 ypc. While the defense has only come up with five takeaways in four games, the unit has registered a solid total of 13 sacks.
A major reason that Auburn was so highly regarded heading into this season was that it possessed a stable of talented running backs unmatched by any other team in the nation. While the Tigers struggled mightily in their effort to move the ball on the ground in the first two games, they have since looked dominant, although it's been against suspect competition. Carnell "Cadillac" Williams is the main attraction, while QB Jason Campbell tries to provide balance in the passing game. As expected, the Auburn defense completed dominated Western Kentucky last weekend. Auburn is currently ranked second nationally in total defense and first in the SEC. The Tigers possess arguably the nation's top linebacking duo, as Karlos Dansby and Dontarrious Thomas figure to be playing on Sundays once their collegiate careers have come to an end. The Tigers have not faced a ground attack this season like they'll be taking on here.
Tennessee has won its last six SEC games dating back to last season, and another win here seems likely. Both defenses may be able to effectively slow down the running games, which puts the game on the shoulders of the quarterbacks. With Clausen, Tennessee should have the advantage there. The Volunteers have won the last four meetings with Auburn and are in a strong position to extend that streak here. Tennessee has been battle tested, winning close games with Marshall, Florida, and South Carolina, and is 6-1 ATS as an underdog off a SU win vs. an opponent off a SU/ATS win. Other numbers show that they are 14-4 ATS in October road games, 22-13 ATS off a home conference SU win, and a fantastic 8-1-1 ATS over the past 9+ seasons vs. SEC foes when the pointspread is less than 4 points either way, including 6-0-1 on the road. Meanwhile, the Tigers are a poor 3-11 ATS in the same situation, including 1-5 at home, clearly showing which team excels in such hotly contested conference meetings and which team consistently comes up short. This game should be a typical SEC slugfest, and we like Tennessee to tame the Tigers in the end.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: TENNESSEE 24 AUBURN 21
The nation's #7 team figures to be challenged this weekend as the Tennessee Volunteers hit the road to battle the Auburn Tigers in an SEC affair. Tennessee is 4-0 for the second time under head coach Phillip Fulmer, joining the undefeated 1998 national championship squad which finished without a blemish. The Vols were able to move up another spot in this week's AP poll after a hard-fought 23-20 overtime victory over South Carolina last weekend, and there is plenty of reason for confidence heading into this showdown, as they have won 12 of their last 13 road games. Furthermore, quarterback Casey Clausen has led the team to victory in each of his 11 career road starts. Auburn entered this season highly ranked with lofty expectations, but back-to-back losses to USC and Georgia Tech by a combined score of 40-3 gave the team a shockingly unexpected 0-2 start. Things have turned around since then, as the team has won a couple; however, it was Vanderbilt and Western Kentucky that were the Tigers' victims.
Casey Clausen is joined by a fine collection of backs behind him. Tailback Cedric Houston is the leader and averaging 108 ypg to rank third among all SEC ball carriers. While the Vols have not been explosive this season offensively, they have achieved outstanding balance with 188 rushing ypg coming on the ground and 195 ypg being generated through the air. Punters rarely earn any press, but Tennessee's Dustin Colquitt is arguably as valuable to the team as Clausen. The nation's only returning 2002 Ray Guy Award finalist, Colquitt had a career-high five punts of 50 yards or more against South Carolina, and Fulmer awarded him a game ball for the effort. In a game such as this one, field position is of utmost importance and the advantage of having Colquitt punting the ball can't be overstated. On defense, opponents are scoring only 15 ppg against Tennessee this season in large part because the team has been outstanding against the run. Squads are running for only 94 ypg and averaging a mere 3.0 ypc. While the defense has only come up with five takeaways in four games, the unit has registered a solid total of 13 sacks.
A major reason that Auburn was so highly regarded heading into this season was that it possessed a stable of talented running backs unmatched by any other team in the nation. While the Tigers struggled mightily in their effort to move the ball on the ground in the first two games, they have since looked dominant, although it's been against suspect competition. Carnell "Cadillac" Williams is the main attraction, while QB Jason Campbell tries to provide balance in the passing game. As expected, the Auburn defense completed dominated Western Kentucky last weekend. Auburn is currently ranked second nationally in total defense and first in the SEC. The Tigers possess arguably the nation's top linebacking duo, as Karlos Dansby and Dontarrious Thomas figure to be playing on Sundays once their collegiate careers have come to an end. The Tigers have not faced a ground attack this season like they'll be taking on here.
Tennessee has won its last six SEC games dating back to last season, and another win here seems likely. Both defenses may be able to effectively slow down the running games, which puts the game on the shoulders of the quarterbacks. With Clausen, Tennessee should have the advantage there. The Volunteers have won the last four meetings with Auburn and are in a strong position to extend that streak here. Tennessee has been battle tested, winning close games with Marshall, Florida, and South Carolina, and is 6-1 ATS as an underdog off a SU win vs. an opponent off a SU/ATS win. Other numbers show that they are 14-4 ATS in October road games, 22-13 ATS off a home conference SU win, and a fantastic 8-1-1 ATS over the past 9+ seasons vs. SEC foes when the pointspread is less than 4 points either way, including 6-0-1 on the road. Meanwhile, the Tigers are a poor 3-11 ATS in the same situation, including 1-5 at home, clearly showing which team excels in such hotly contested conference meetings and which team consistently comes up short. This game should be a typical SEC slugfest, and we like Tennessee to tame the Tigers in the end.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: TENNESSEE 24 AUBURN 21
